The business’ playbook during Trumponomics II (july 2025)

How have businesses reacted to a changing and uncertain political and economic environment.

It has been almost 6 months since the second administration of US President, Donald Trump, began.

During this period, businesses owners and C-Level Executives have had to make strategic decisions for their companies, defining actions and adapting them within these 2 quarters. Here is what they have done, according to data, some as recent as preliminary estimates of employment for June.

First, in the face of uncertainty of the policies announced and the impact they would generate in their businesses, they reduced the rhythm of job creation. The jobs added in the private sector is the slowest at least from 2015, excluding 2020, with a total of 644,000 jobs added during the first semester, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows in their latest report. However, not all the economic sectors took this approach: The Financial sector is creating more jobs now than during the first semester of 2024. The reason behind this number is the increase in job creation in the Rental and Leasing services, sector that includes the rental and leasing of commercial and industrial machinery and equipment. This is a clear change regarding last year’s results that may show a second strategy: lease and rent instead of buying fixed assets.

A third strategy comes from the businesses importing goods, according to USA Trade Online data. As a reaction to the announcement of general and important tariffs to different countries, businesses anticipated imports during the first quarter, with an increase of 26% compared to the same period of 2024. President Trump announced the Liberation Day tariffs on April 9^th, then came adjustments to those measures announced, and new announcements have come since. Along with these adjustments, a slow economic environment that reduced the Personal consumption expenditures side of the economy, and more limited finances of the businesses due to the anticipated purchases in the first quarter, imports have had an annual growth of only 1.2% during the second quarter, up to May. Without a significant increase in production or exports, this naturally brought an important increase in inventories for businesses of almost $200 billion USD in the first quarter, especially for those companies importing from Europe, mainly Pharmaceutical Products, Luxury products like pearls, semi-precious stones, precious metals, etc., and Organic Chemicals. Another important increase came from Asia, mainly Electric and Industrial Machinery, with an important shift in the country of origin, moving from China to ASEAN Countries (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and other 6 countries), accelerating what was a clear trend from previous years. Imports from Mexico and Canada, represented only 10% of that increase.

A fourth strategy has been to continue investing in information technology, not only computers and data processing equipment, as showed by the imports from Asia, but also in software, according to GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This may show the importance of using data and information technology to optimize operations during a difficult economic environment.

This general playbook has been an emergent and changing one due to the speed and uncertainty of the economic policies of Trumponomics. Whether it will work for the second semester is still uncertain. Second quarter showed some signs of recovery, but business’ decision makers will continue with the difficulties of a complex balancing act for their financial, commercial, investing and operating strategies. These playbooks are the result of adaptation, and not of an orthodox planning action. Definitely, not “business as usual”, but a basic action to go through the current economic environment.